A Letter Is Known To Have Come From Either TATANAGAR Or CALCUTTA. On The Envelope, Just Two Consecutive Letters, TA, Are Visible. The Probability That The Letter Has Come From CACUTTA Is

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Question

A letter is known to have come from either TATANAGAR or CALCUTTA. On the envelope, just two consecutive letters, TA, are visible. The probability that the letter has come from CACUTTA is

Solution

Correct option is

4/11

Let E1 denote the event that the letter came from TATANAGAR and E2the event that the letter came from CALCUTTA. Let A denote the event that the two consecutive alphabets visible on the envelope are TA. We have P(E1) = 1/2, P(E2) = 1/2,

 Therefore, by Bayes’ theorem we have

                        

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