A Person Is Known To Speak The Truth 4 Time Out Of 5. He Throws A Dia And Reports That It Is A Ace. The Probability That It Is Actually A Ace Is

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Question

A person is known to speak the truth 4 time out of 5. He throws a dia and reports that it is a ace. The probability that it is actually a ace is

Solution

Correct option is

4/9

Let E1 denote the event that an ace occurs and E2 the event that it does not occur. Let A denote the event that the person reports that it is an ace. Then P(E1) = 1/6, P(E2) = 5/6, 

           

         By Bayes’ theorem,

        

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